“They say the Nile used to run from East to West”
– The Killers, “Spaceman”

Space travel. Travel to Mars. High Speed 2. Fibre optic 5G broadband. Are these worthwhile expenditures and investments, or are they a waste of money?
Easy. What was Christopher Columbus’ business case when he set sail in 1492? Nobody asked, nobody cared.
Big, bold programmes very often offer unintended and unanticipated benefits that dwarf the initial investment. We have seen this again and again, especially where there is good governance, strong project management and a clear plan for steady-state operations. Take the high speed “bullet trains” in Japan.

Bullets

The Shinkansen (‘new main line’), or bullet train, is a network of high-speed railway lines. It was built to connect distant Japanese regions with Tokyo, to aid economic growth and development.
Over the Shinkansen’s 50 year history, there has been not a single passenger fatality or injury on board due to train accidents.
Starting in 1964, the network has expanded to currently consist of 2,800 km of lines with maximum speeds of 320 km/h.
In 2016, it carried 159 million passengers, and since opening more than five decades ago, it has transported 10 billion passengers. At peak times, the line carries 16 trains per hour in each direction with 16 cars each (1,323-seat capacity) with only three minutes delay between trains.
Japan was the first country to build high-speed travel. Back in 1958, when it was approved, the cost was 400 billion yen.

Technology, Reliability, Punctuality and Safety

To enable high-speed operation, Shinkansen uses a range of advanced technology in routing, signalling and rolling stock, compared with conventional rail, achieving not only high speed but also a high standard of safety and comfort.
Shinkansen trains are electric multiple units, offering fast acceleration, deceleration and reduced damage to the track because of the use of lighter vehicles compared to locomotives or power cars. The coaches are air-sealed to ensure stable air pressure when entering tunnels at high speed.
The system is reliable thanks to near-total separation from slower traffic. In 2016, the Shinkansen’s average delay from schedule per train was 24 seconds. This includes delays due to uncontrollable causes, such as natural disasters. The record in 1997 was 18 seconds.
Over the Shinkansen’s 50-plus year history, there have been no passenger fatalities due to train accidents such as derailments or collisions, despite frequent earthquakes and typhoons.
In the event of an earthquake, an earthquake detection system can bring the train to a stop very quickly.

Economics

The Shinkansen has had a significant beneficial effect on Japan’s business, economy, society, environment and culture beyond construction and operations. The results in time savings alone from switching from a conventional to a high-speed network have been estimated at 400 million hours, and the system has an economic impact of 500 billion yen per year. This means that the project pays back its initial cost, every single year.
Traveling from Tokyo to Osaka produces only around 16% of the carbon dioxide of the equivalent journey by car, a saving of 15,000 tons of CO2 per year.
Compared with air transport, the Shinkansen has several advantages, including scheduling frequency and flexibility, punctual operation, comfortable seats, and convenient city-centre terminals. The fares are competitive with domestic air fares.
So, to Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson, I say: all power to your elbows.
I don’t really want to live in a world without billionaires. And I don’t ever listen to anyone who tells them how they should spend their money.

James Neophytou