Considerable hurdles still remain. These encompass governance (the island’s presidency will probably rotate between the two communities), security (there are currently around 35,000 Turkish troops stationed on the island and Ankara will likely want to retain the right to send soldiers if the interests of Turkish Cypriots are threatened) and territory.

This last issue has been the most intractable. Greeks fled south and Turkish Cypriots headed north following the invasion, leaving property and land behind. Following reunification, they may be compensated through an international fund (although the exact terms still need to be ironed out). The boundaries between the two communities will also need to be redrawn, with the north, which is less densely populated, ceding some land.

The most obvious reasons for the “tangible progress” witnessed by Kerry on these issues are Nicos Anastasiades, the president of the Greek Cypriot south, and Mustafa Akinci, who leads the Turkish-run north. These men, who both hail from the same southern city of Limassol, are new to their jobs, far more moderate than their predecessors and, crucially, willing to compromise.

As the mayor of northern Nicosia, Akinci helped establish a sewage system that ran under the buffer zone – the only real link between the two sides of the city. Since being elected president in April, such co-operation has been extended to mobile phone and electricity grids and symbolic strolls through the border with Anastasiades.

These gestures hint at the underlying economic rationale for reunification. It could boost tourism in the wake of the recent financial crisis on the island and make it easier for companies on either side to start developing the recently-discovered gas fields off the coast. Cyprus, both Akinci and Anastasiades agree, is too small an island to remain divided.

According to some estimates, reunification could boost the island’s GDP by €5bn within five years (or €1,700 per capita) and €10bn within 20. This is a considerable fillip given that GDP in the south was only €21.1bn last year.

Reunification will also ensure that the south is less reliant on Greece, which has more than enough troubles of its own, and open up trade with the increasingly dynamic Turkish economy. Strangely, the north, one of the most secular Muslim communities in the world, may feel an opposite compulsion: to escape the shadow of the increasingly authoritarian president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

For his part, Erdoğan has in the past complained about having to bankroll northern Cyprus. But there are bigger issues at stake. On Monday, European Union foreign ministers agreed to open the first formal talks about Turkey joining the bloc since 2013.

The disputed status of Cyprus has long been seen as an impediment to such talks (cynics might suggest it was an excuse for inaction). But the EU’s migration crisis, the jihadi threat and increased tensions between Turkey and Russia over the conflict in Syria have given fresh impetus to the negotiations.

Cyprus may be small. But it’s geographic location (the most easterly country in the EU) gives it huge strategic importance. The island’s reunification could spark big geopolitical consequences.

Source: The Telegraph