After a wait of nearly four and half years, the most controversial World Cup in history is nearly upon us. With the unique timing of the tournament predictions are a gamble, but here is my take on how each team will fare.
Group A
Qatar are the seeded team in Group A as hosts, but their lowly world ranking reflects the lack of quality and experience in their squad. It would be remarkable if Qatar can progress to the Last 16. Ecuador are regular qualifiers for the World Cup, but are unlikely to make much of an impact. As reigning AFCON champions, Senegal are probably Africa’s best bet to progress deep into the tournament and can benefit from finding themselves in the weak Group A. Holland are the highest ranked team in Group A and hot favourites to win the group but a Quarter-Final spot is about as good as Holland can hope for in 2022.
Group B
England’s draw may seem kind, but the average world ranking of the teams in this group is higher than any other. Factor in the political tensions between Iran and the West, and a local derby with Wales, and you have a group with the potential to be explosive both on and off the field. England should progress from the group with a core of experienced players and highly talented youngsters. Yet the feeling persists that England’s golden chance to win their first trophy since 1966 was at last summer’s Euros. The likely outcome for England is a respectable, but disappointing exit in the Quarter-Finals. Wales are in the World Cup Finals for the first time since 1958 and are eager to make a mark and could squeeze through as runners-up. With the passion of an entire country behind them against England and the USA in particular, expect one or two shocks from the Iranians. Progressing beyond the group stage for the first time, in a Middle Eastern World Cup, is a very realistic prospect. The USA have lots of players from Europe’s top leagues, and will be competitive but expect the politically charged final group match with Iran to determine progress to the Last 16.
Group C
Argentina are keen to give Lionel Messi the international swansong his illustrious career deserves. Comfortably winning the group is probable, winning the trophy is a possibility, but elimination in the Quarter-Finals is the likely outcome. Mexico consistently progress to the Last 16 but then fall short, a fate likely to befall them again in Qatar. Poland finished third at the World Cups of both 1974 and 1982, but since then, they have never got beyond the group stage. With an ageing squad it is likely to be yet another group stage exit for Poland, even if Lewandowski finally breaks his World Cup Finals scoring duck. Saudi Arabia complete the group, and despite familiarity with the conditions, lack the quality to trouble their rivals.
Group D
Reigning champions France headline Group D. A star studded squad led by Ballon D’Or winner Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappe have a good chance of retaining the trophy. The impressive Danish team will provide a stern challenge, but both teams look strong favourites to progress. Tunisia and Australia make up the group. Tunisia have never progressed out of the group in five previous World Cup appearances, and that is almost certain to remain the case. Reaching the Last 16 in 2006 looks likely to remain a high water mark for the Socceroos. Arab support may help Tunisia edge Australia for third place.
Group E
A Japanese team boasting a number of players performing in Europe’s top leagues will provide a sterner challenge to the heavyweights in this group than Costa Rica, who look far weaker than in 2014 when they enjoyed a glorious run to the Quarter-Finals. With goal difference probably key in this group to determine the difficulty of the knockout stage path, both Spain and Germany will be desperate to knock in the goals against Costa Rica and avoid tripping up against Japan. A new team retaining the tika taka mentality has improved the Spanish, whilst the German resurgence is built around the outstanding young talent of Jamal Musiala. These two teams can go far in the tournament, but a lot will depend on winning this group first.
Group F
The runners-up and third place teams from Russia in 2018 are the headline acts in Group F. Luka Modric and Kevin de Bruyne remain the world class metronomes for Croatia and Belgium. Both teams are on the slide, with Croatia wonderfully overreaching to reach the 2018 final, and Belgium’s golden generation very much at the end of its cycle. The North African diaspora in Qatar and other Arab supporters will give Morocco a lift and they could prove a threat in this group, and could be a good long shot bet to progress from the group. Canada have qualified for their first World Cup since 1986 when they lost all three group games without scoring. As another of the 2026 hosts, Canada will see this tournament as a valuable learning curve at the highest level.
Group G
Serbia will be quietly confident of progressing from Group G and could be a dark horse to reach the Quarter-Finals. Switzerland have an excellent qualifying record and are a team that always seem to out-perform their expectations at major tournaments. Cameroon are Africa’s most successful team in World Cup history but there is little to suggest they can progress. Brazil make up the group. With a squad brimming with quality in attack, a choice of world class goalkeepers and experience along the spine of the team, Brazil are surely the favourites to win the World Cup.
Group H
Portugal will hope they can go a step further than their best finish in 2006 when they reached the Semi-Finals. Portugal are blessed with a squad full of top class players all over the pitch, but their greatest enigma is how to utilise Ronaldo without inhibiting the rest of the team. Probably the most unpredictable of the African contingent, Ghana arrive in Qatar with an untested squad. South Korean success is dependent on Heung-Min Son. If he is fit, South Korea could prove a nuisance in this group. Uruguay have a youthful team that can still draw on the experience of the likes of Suarez and Cavani. Though ranked lower than Portugal, you get the sense Uruguay are better placed to navigate through this group in first place.
Predictions
England will not progress beyond the Quarter-Finals, with Belgium the biggest flops and Iran, Serbia and Morocco to surprise many. If the tournament pans out as expected, Brazil will beat Argentina and France will beat Uruguay in the Semi Finals to set up a repeat of 1998. This time however, I expect Brazil to get revenge and beat France 3-1 to win their sixth world title.
Adam Ioannou

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