Writing in Turkish daily Hurriyet Daily News (07.12.11) under the above title, Robert Ellis [a regular commentator on Turkish affairs in the Danish and international press], describes the situation in the East Mediterranean after the Republic of Cyprus has started oil drilling activities as follows:
“What the Arab geographer al-Muqaddasi noted a thousand years ago still holds true today: ‘The island of Qubrus is in the power of whichever nation is overlord in these seas.’ However, there seems to be some disagreement as to who is overlord.
Turkeyconsiders the easternMediterraneanas ‘mare nostrum’ andTurkey’s Transport Minister Binali Yıldırım has made it clear that any project in this region requiresTurkey’s approval. Nevertheless, the Republic of Cyprus (ROC) has exercised its sovereign right to exploit its offshore natural resources and has agreed withLebanon,EgyptandIsraelto delimit their respective exclusive economic zones (EEZ).
Despite widespread international support for the ROC,Turkeyhas sent a research vessel into Cypriot territorial waters escorted by Turkish warships. In SeptemberTurkeyalso concluded a continental shelf delimitation agreement with theTurkishRepublicof NorthernCyprus, a political entity only recognized byTurkey.
The Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yıldız, has also announced that the Turkish Petroleum Corporation is ready to start drilling for oil and natural gas inFamagustain northernCyprus.
In September an American company, Noble Energy, began drilling in Block 12 (the Aphrodite field) ofCyprus’ EEZ. Last month Noble Energy announced the block would yield between 3 and 9 trillion cubic feet of gas with a 60 percent probability of success. Sixteen trillion cubic feet have been discovered in the adjacent Israeli block (Leviathan).
According to the U.S. Geological Survey there are 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas in theLevantBasinbetweenCyprusandIsrael. By comparison all the EU countries combined hold 86.2 trillion cubic feet of gas.
In geopolitical terms this is a real game changer, and as one EU diplomat put it, ‘the most importance change to the geopolitical significance of this part of the world since theSuez Canal.’
ROC has now announced a second round of licensing, which opens up for an interesting strategic perspective. Cyprus was off the U.S.’ radar screen until the discovery of natural gas. Not any longer. There are now signs of a strategic alliance between three of the major protagonists in the region:Greece,CyprusandIsrael.
Greece has confirmed its long-standing defence pact with Cyprus and in the past year has upgraded its relations with Israel. Last month an official visit toCyprusby Israeli President Shimon Peres was concluded by the signing of bilateral agreements. The Cypriot defence minister has also indicated that defence cooperation and security agreements are in the offing.
Relations between the two former allies, Turkey and Israel, have been bedevilled by the Mavi Marmara incident last year. In 2007 Turkish and Israeli officials held initial talks on constructing a 460 km oil and gas pipeline from Ceyhan toHaifa. But now Yıldız has saidTurkeywill not allowIsraelto export natural gas toEuropethroughTurkey.
There is another major player,Russia, which has also had a long-standing alliance withCyprusand has ruled out any recognition of a Turkish state in northernCyprus.
The economy of Greek Cyprus is underpinned by Russian investment and a recent loan of 2.5 billion Euros might saveCyprusfrom the embarrassment of an EU bailout.Russiais one ofTurkey’s major trading partners and suppliesTurkeywith natural gas through the Blue Stream project.
Turkey’s role as a regional energy hub would be threatened by an alliance between Cyprus and Israel, but the open question is what action Turkey can and will take. In view of the deadlock in reunification talks, menfaat (mutual benefit) might act as a greater incentive to reach a solution”.
